UNPREDICTIBILITY IN INDUSTRIAL DESIGN
It all begins with an idea.
Have you ever stumbled upon something where the end result veered drastically from its intended purpose? Were the consequences always clear-cut, or did they spiral into unforeseen territory? It all began with a casual scroll through YouTube, where a vaping video caught my eye, unraveling the unintended addiction spawned by a product initially crafted to aid smoking cessation. This phenomenon, known as the perverse effect or the Cobra Effect, ignited a flurry of questions. Do our creations often take on lives of their own, diverging from their original intent? Can we truly predict how users will interact with our designs, or are our mental models flawed? And what exactly defines the pinnacle of product perfection? Ironically, what began as a leisurely browse through online content inadvertently became the cornerstone of my research
THE COBRA EFFECT
The story originates in India during the 1900s, when the colonial government sought to address the issue of rampant cobras. In an attempt to control their population, a bounty was placed on cobras, incentivizing individuals to kill and present their corpses for rewards. However, this initiative backfired when entrepreneurial-minded Indians began breeding cobras for profit. Faced with an unintended consequence, the colonial authorities had no choice but to terminate the bounty program. Ironically, this decision led to breeders releasing more cobras into the wild, exacerbating the problem further.
This is what we call the Cobra Effect. It's when a good idea backfires and makes things worse. Sound familiar? Think about vaping—it was supposed to help people quit smoking, but now it's causing its own problems.This consequence is one of the perverse effects. Sometimes, our best intentions lead to unexpected trouble. Welcome to the world of unintended consequences!
In the quiet realm of design, the Cobra Effect and the Butterfly Effect intersect, like ripples on a tranquil pond. Within this simplicity lies the profound interplay of cause and consequence.
THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT
Nagasaki's Twist of Fate: A foggy day altered the course of history, redirecting the trajectory of destruction from Kuroko to Nagasaki. The whims of weather changed the world's narrative, leaving us to ponder the fragility of fate.
The Art School Rejection: A brush with destiny — the rejection of Adolf Hitler from Vienna's art school may have steered the course of history down a darker path. The spurned artist turned tyrant, shaping the world in ways unforeseen.
Chernobyl's Brave Trio: In the depths of a nuclear disaster, three souls braved the abyss to avert catastrophe. Their selfless act, whether in survival or sacrifice, quelled the deadly dance of atoms, altering the course of history for generations to come.
Controversy Breeds Curiosity: When nationalistic fervor aimed to silence "Hindus: an alternative history," it unwittingly fueled the flames of curiosity, propelling the book to newfound fame. What started as protests ended in a surge of readership, turning a spotlight on the very narrative some sought to suppress.
APPLICAATION IN ID ( FATEFUL AND UNFATEFUL CONCEQUENCES )
A) UNFATEFUL CONSEQUENCES IN ID
The Plastic Paradox: Oh, the irony of plastic — born from the noble pursuit of sustainability, only to become the bane of environmental existence. From animal horns to synthetic cellulose, the quest for alternatives inadvertently birthed a material with unforeseen consequences, echoing the twists of fate in design's labyrinth.
Revving Up Traffic with License Plates: Picture the bustling streets of Mexico City and Bogota, where a well-intentioned attempt to alleviate traffic led to a surge in vehicular chaos. By restricting driving days based on license plate numbers, authorities inadvertently spurred a frenzy of car acquisitions, shrouding the cities in a cloud of exhaust fumes and frustration.
Another prominent incident where the butterfly effect plays a significant role is the removal of the headphone jack from the later version of iphone. Although the decision resulted in a slimmer phone, users have had conflicting feelings about it. The removal of the headphone plug was one of numerous "subtle" modifications to a next iPhone release, according to a report published in The Wall Street Journal. Its surprising how very minute and subtle modifications can have such a huge impact on how the product users perceive the product. According to Patrick Moorhead, chief analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy, it's a move that enabled Apple to remove the bulkiest portion of the phone, as he told CNBC back in March. However, Moorhead and other analysts told CNBC that they had received with Bluetooth headphones and headsets is that they are just unreliable. In after the iPhone was released withput the headphone jack,Moorhead stated, "They're difficult to connect to and you have to remember to charge them. Practically speaking, the customers were particularly concerned with gadget thinness, infact it has been discovered through surveys, that customers prefer faster computers and longer battery life prevailed over thinness.
B) FATEFUL CONSEQUENCES IN ID
Take, for instance, the humble bubble wrap — a failed experiment in wall coverings, now a symbol of anticipation with each satisfying pop.
What began as an experiment in creating a new type of wall covering by Alfred Fielding and Marc Chavannes turned into an unexpected stroke of genius. Despite their initial setback in the wallpaper market, they discovered that their creation had a remarkable talent for protecting fragile goods during transit. Enter IBM, in need of a solution to safely ship their products. Fielding and Chavannes seized the opportunity, partnering with IBM to revolutionize the world of packaging. Soon, bubble wrap became the go-to choice for companies large and small, ensuring the safe arrival of their products to destinations worldwide.
But the story doesn't end there. Bubble wrap found an unexpected place in the hearts of people everywhere, transcending its practical purpose to become a source of simple joy. From executives to children, the satisfaction of popping those little bubbles became an irresistible pastime, proving that sometimes, the most delightful discoveries come from the most unexpected places.
Or the humble potato chip, born from a culinary mishap and now a global snack phenomenon. In a bustling New York restaurant in 1853, another culinary legend was born. When a persnickety customer complained about the thickness of his fries, Chef George Crum took matters into his own hands. Channeling his frustration into his cooking, he sliced the potatoes impossibly thin, fried them to a crisp, and seasoned them generously. To his surprise, the customer not only approved but adored the crispy creation. And thus, the humble potato chip was born, forever changing the snack landscape with its irresistible crunch and flavor.
3. The Bauhaus stands for a movement more than merely a school. It is surprising how something as insignificant as one building in one corner of the world could be the reason to a drastic change in the design world. Bauhaus was the most significant event in design history and helped usher in the modern era. The iPhone, the simplicity of a stop sign, items from Target, and even your computer's desktop can all be recognised as examples of its impacts today. Its objective was to combine all forms of artistic expression into a single, cohesive strategy that incorporated both individual creativity and mass production and function. With limited decoration, Bauhaus design is frequently abstract, angular, and geometric.
4. Volkswagen beetle Adolf Hitler ordered the Beetle in the 1930s to serve as the "people's automobile" (or volks wagen in German). Ferdinand Porsche created a curved vehicle that was reliable, practical, and economical. The "Bug," as it was lovingly called, gained notoriety three decades later as a representation of the 1960s and the notion that "little is beautiful." The tiny beetle changed how people considered cars forever.
RELEVANCE
So how is the butterfly or the cobra effect relevant in design? The design world is an everchanging world and it cannot survive without change throughout time, and as a result, so should the positioning message of different brands and products as well. Even seemingly insignificant improvements, like changing the picture style, adding a new colour scheme, or even slightly changing the product,like the butterfly adjusting its wings, could have a significant impact in the future. Small changes that haven't been properly considered in this case will be unpredictable and could have negative effects on the company when they eventually cause the dangerous storm. At worst, the product can begin to lose all brand integrity, perplex the market, and suffer a corresponding loss of sales.
Questions that arise-
Why do we have system flaws like the cobra effect?
How predicable is unpredictability while designing products?
How does linea thinking affect the design world?
Can you really predict human behaviour and should you consider mental modals while designing products?
How can designers adapt to different mental modals?
A SWEET SPOT
Mental modals
Mental modals are the assumptions or belief systems of how things are going to work based on previous experiences and ideas. What are mental modals and how can you use them in design to improve the Conceptual Conceptual modal modal overall user experience. An example of mental modal can be- Suppose a person who doesn’t know how to use an iPad is given an I pad to read a book; he might already be having an idea or in-built assumption of what reading a book feels like. Let’s consider another person B who has already used an I-pad and knows how to read it. If is given an iPad to read a book, his mental idea is going to be very different than the person A. (reference book by Susan Weinschenk – 100 things every designer needs to know) ( REFERENCE BOOK- 100 things every designer should know )
Conceptual modals
Conceptual modals are created by the product developer or designers. The modal represents how the designers want the users to use the product/service. It constitutes of how exactly the product should be used (the manual). The appropriate development and introduction of conceptual modals to users can make a huge difference in how successful the product/service is. ( REFERENCE BOOK- 100 things every designer should know ) An example of conceptual modal can be- In case of the above example about using an iPad, the modal developed by the designer before handing over the iPad to the user will be called a conceptual modal. It includes the wireframe or the workflow about how exactly the user should use the iPad to read the book. The sweet spot A functional product Mental modal In product design, it is very important that the conceptual modal created by the designer is well researched before creating and developing a product.
SWEET SPOT
There is a sweet spot where the mental modal of the user and the conceptual modal made by the designer intersect with each other. A product that lies inside this sweet spot is most likely to have the desired result. This is the typical definition of a functional product. Every product designer should have an understanding about what exactly will go in the user’s mind when they use the product is very important. This is why trying to predict the mental modal of the user and developing a conceptual modal accordingly is an important part in the process. Even if the change is intended to be positive and affects your offering and positioning, you should consider the effect it might have on your audience.
THE SOLUTION
The cobra effect takes place when the mental modal of the user didn’t really match with the conceptual model of the designer.
What could have been done instead?
What should be the possible solution to such an unavoidable yet challenging and taxing problem?
Well, what is linear thinking? —when our thinking proceeds in a sequential and serial manner without any consideration of different possibilities, it leads to a step-by-step progression similar to a straight line.
Lateral thinking, on the other hand has an approach of viewing the situation or the problem from multiple perspectives. The ‘Cobra Effect’ happens when we lose sight of the product’s original purpose. When we lose context, and become more fixated on arbitrary performance metrics. Oversimplification often closes a lot of paths while designing products.
A FEW EFFECTIVE METHODS
Different types of mental modals like first principal thinking, Feynman’s technique, inversion, map vs territory, etc can be used in used while designing products.
Ramification (lateral thinking) Lateral thinking is one of the ways of solving problems where you approach the problem in a creative and flexible manner instead of moving in a straightforward or linear manner. It is the ability to have a different perspective and look at a solution with a completely fresh point of view. One of the best examples of a lateral approach to a thought process is the solution to one of the most classic riddles ever. There was this woman who had two sons born in the same hour of the same day, but they were not twins. How is that possible? Well, the answer to that riddle is – the sons were not twins, they were triplets. Well yep, the answer is total creative and makes you think of a totally different solution. The definition of ramification is an unpredictable or complex consequence of any action or event. Ramification can simply be applied to any design process by being prepared to multiple consequences to the same situation or thinking about different and fresh possibilities with a creative approach. What does a Research and development manager have to say about this? When I asked him what his experience was and how did he tackled the situations when the R & D team couldn’t see through the possible outcomes of the upcoming product in the market, well his answer was- “Well yeah there have been a lot of times when the R & D team couldn’t really see through the outcome of the product in the market. The only solution is reflecting on what went wrong, what could have been better, consistently working on the feedback and keeping the answer in mind when developing another similar product, the next time.” ( REFERENCE BOOK- 100 things every designer should know )
an efficient product desigmer should always question a few things before moving forward with the project. Among the inquiries to make are:
1. Which Elements of Value does the product/service offers?
2. How will the suggested adjustment affect each of those components separately?
3. Could a change in one area have unanticipated repercussions on another?
4. Is there a chance that users would stop supporting our brand as a result?
5. How can we use this knowledge to reduce any perceived problems by educating and preparing for what is to come?
Just by keeping in mind these questions can make a huge impact on the outcome of the product and the overall satisfaction of the users. The goal is to make use of feedback in whatever way possible. It's not necessarily awful when things change. Even if the goals are good, you still need to be prepared to think that any change could negatively affect their experience.
CONCLUSION
Should we commit to refine or embrace slower more organic practices? The butterfly effect theory can be used to move the product’s marketing ahead by thoughtfully modifying little aspects of branding and design. Angered users may appear even if subtle changes are made to the product. Different kinds of changes can cause different users to become angry. These customers are interested in the product and are active. The butterfly effect gives user insights that will help make improvements to the product. It can be anything, as Tokerud explained- ” I have seen people get irrationally angry over tiny colour adjustments. For some people it’s any change at all, for others it’s the changes that make us have to adjust the way we do things, or even learn to do it in a completely different way. Even if the site has become more intuitive for new users, there are always those who need help when change happens. Tokerud stated we must keep in mind those current users and remind ourselves that not everyone is a digital native who is quick to pick up new skills. “ (REFERENCE-https://www.infoq.com/news/2022/05/feedback-users-better-products/) Since anger is a strong emotion, it is likely that the person we are dealing with is merely trying to have a better experience. That is an important and crucial responsibility as designers. Tokerud clarified the best way to deal with irate people in order to gather their feedback: “The main thing is to not be defensive. You’re not perfect. Your product is not perfect. Be humble and curious. In my experience, people will open up to you if they feel you actually listen to them.” ( quote Tokerud ) Conclusion Conclusion Taking it back to vaping where the question originally arised from, maybe relying on mental modals may help at times but it probably isn’t always the right solution. The conclusion is that designers should prioritise mental modals and try to predict the possible outcomes and responses to products while designing them. While, the butterfly effect teaches that it's crucial to have conversations with users since doing so helps in the production of better goods and products; the cobra effect and the chaos theory on the other end teaches us to embrace the unpredictability that comes along with chaos. It teaches us that sometimes it is better go along with the flow throughout the journey. As discussed before the best strategy can be described by a quote by Tokerud,
“stay humble and be curious”
